The banter of a coalition government, the rise of Michael Ignatieff and fall of Stephane Dion, the shaky status of Stephen Harper’s minority government, and a looming recession – proof Canadian politics is anything but boring.
Christine de Clercy, an associate professor of Political Science, tackled the state of Canada’s political system earlier this week at a Senior Alumni event.
“These have been unusual times in Canadian politics,” says de Clercy. “We’re testing new territory at the federal level, these are not isolated changes.”
de Clercy focused on three significant aspects of Canadian politics: party leadership and longevity, federal-provincial government relations, and the status of our minority government in parliament. Her research suggests the lifespan of federal party leaders has decreased significantly since the 1970s.
The federal Liberals offer a clear example, she says, having swapped party leaders three times since 2003. The success of Ignatieff, who has a fairly short political track record in Canada, will be depend largely on grounding in-house factions and criticisms – a difficult hurdle, as Dion discovered.
“Very rarely did you have members of a caucus criticizing their leader, that is an example of a party that is deeply divided,” says de Clercy.
de Clercy also expects tension between federal and provincial governments, specifically over the “open federalism” advocated by the Harper government. With the onset of a recession, relationships between federal and provincial governments may become antagonistic in the coming months.
Ahead, de Clercy says Canadians are likely to see more minority governments. One explanation is the emerging popularity of the Green party (which wins more than five per cent of Canadian votes), causing a fracture between the NDP, Conservative, Liberal, and Bloc Quebecois parties.
As a result, coalition governments might play a more prominent role in the future of Canadian politics.
“If parties are to survive in this new terrain they have to be able to work together, which is why it is highly likely that we’ll be seeing more coalitions in the coming years,” says de Clercy.