Editor’s Note: On Nov. 15, 2012, Western News celebrated its 40th anniversary with a special edition asking 40 Western researchers to share the 40 THINGS WE NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEXT 40 YEARS. This is one of those entries. To view the entire anniversary issue, visit the Western News archives.
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The past 30 years has seen the proliferation of vast quantities of remote-sensing data that are available on a variety of time scales, and the volume of that data will increase by orders of magnitude over the next 40 years. In addition, we are experiencing a confluence of high-performance computing (HPC) capability and breakthroughs in computational algorithms, data handling and storage, the development of services to support continuous data collection and analysis, and user interfaces for remote sensing applications in integrated solutions.
While the identification and analysis of natural hazards has been an increasingly important goal, the incredible growth in both the quantity and quality of available data has been both a boon and challenge to the scientific, engineering and hazard-response communities.
A U.S. National Academy of Sciences’ report called for improved spatial and geometric resolution in technology and image processing, including improved temporal resolution. Today, this technology is delivering imagery and derived products in the fields of economic development, environmental assessment, commercial, agricultural, land-use and mineral resource mapping, water resources, and natural hazards.
Over the next 40 years, these large quantities of data will be converted into knowledge and information that individuals, hazard-response organizations and industry can use to improve decision-making and achieve their goals and objectives. The resulting applications will be uniquely capable of providing critical real-time, or near real-time, information on the progression and impact of natural hazards, information that is crucial input for both long-term planning and rapid response.
This combination of HPC and remote sensing infrastructure will not only provide society the data analytics capability to convert raw images into maps that can be used by city planners to optimize infrastructure systems such as electrical networks, but also a unique opportunity for continuous data monitoring and early warning of natural hazards with strong reliability and ready availability.
Natural hazards represent a significant risk to the people and economy of every country in the world and are often a future liability that is difficult to quantify or predict. Research points out the exponentially increasing yearly losses due to natural hazards disasters in the United States alone escalated from, on average, approximately $2.5 billion in 1960 to $15 billion in 2002, and conclude human factors such as population growth are the most likely contributors to this increase.
The anticipated doubling of Earth’s population in the next 50 years will result in unprecedented growth in our urban centres, and associated risk to their populations.
Again, the potential for future disasters arising from inevitable natural hazards is exacerbated by population growth and concentration. Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar in 2008 and the resulting damages totaled more than $10 billion, including 135,000 deaths and 800,000 homes damaged or destroyed, according to the Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies.
Other research points to the occurrence of a large earthquake in one of the world’s megacities possibility resulting in as many as 12 million deaths. However, the increased hardware capacity and software techniques capable of processing large quantities of remote sensing data will provide real-time hazard mapping and emergency response capability to the emergency response and business communities.
We will see the development of a wide variety of valuable tools for global monitoring in environment and security to monitor earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanoes, forest fires, landslides, changes in permafrost and arctic ice, and the impacts of climate change. These will include mapping interfaces similar to those we see today, but with real-time or near real-time capability that allow a responder to click the map for detailed, interactive scientific, population and management information for rapid, improved response to these events.
This revolution in the quantity and quality of remote sensing data and the computational and visualization tools will allow for both the forecasting and monitoring of these catastrophic events, providing an unprecedented opportunity to reduce deaths and provide rapid relief to disaster victims.
Kristy Tiampo is a professor in the Department of Earth Sciences in the Faculty of Science.