On Sunday, U.S. President Joe Biden announced he was withdrawing from the presidential race and almost immediately endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris. The move is unprecedented, and with the upcoming Democratic National Convention taking place Aug. 19 to 22, the move has left many wondering what’s next.
Western News spoke with political science professor Matthew Lebo, whose research focuses on American domestic politics with an emphasis on the presidency, Congress and elections, about what we can expect to see now in the run-up to the U.S. election in November.
Western News: Is there any precedent for these circumstances? Has this ever happened before?
Matthew Lebo: The closest to a precedent for this was 1968 when Lyndon Johnson announced in March that he would not accept the nomination of the Democratic Party for another term. But Johnson did not endorse anyone and the primaries were not binding, so delegates to the convention were free to vote for whichever candidate they preferred. That led to many months of fighting over the nomination and, ultimately, the fractured party and its candidate, Hubert Humphrey, lost the election.
There has been talk of a ‘mini-primary’ – does this seem likely?
ML: A mini-primary seems unlikely at this point. As of Tuesday, enough delegates to the convention have now pledged themselves to Kamala Harris and will have some kind of virtual roll call vote in early August. This essentially makes Vice-President Harris the presumptive nominee going into the convention and avoids a potential battle there. It also makes the next few weeks easier in terms of campaigning, fundraising and choosing a running mate.
What does it mean now that President Biden has backed Kamala Harris as the democratic nominee?
ML: Despite Biden’s endorsement, Vice-President Harris did not automatically get the delegates that were already pledged to him. However, in the past few days Vice-President Harris became quickly unstoppable; she has been endorsed by nearly all of her potential rivals and the Biden campaign has been handed to her. She has Biden’s organization and his campaign funds, as well as nearly $100 million new dollars.
If Vice-President Harris is the next democratic nominee, what do you think her chances are?
ML: Vice-President Harris should be, at worst, in the same position as Biden was. But she has the potential to do much better. In 2020, Biden won by 7 million votes (and a close electoral college). But polls show a big drop in enthusiasm for Biden that Harris could reverse. She will be a more effective campaigner against Donald Trump, whose chances of winning are a lot lower today than they were two days ago.
What about a running mate?
ML: Vice-President Harris may settle on a running mate very soon. She will be looking for someone who can help her pull ahead in the close battleground states, most especially Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The governors of Pennsylvania and Michigan are good bets. There are some others as well. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is the only woman who is being talked about as a potential running mate so far.
What did you make of the Republican response to Biden’s announcement?
ML: The message from Donald Trump and the Republicans that they would seek national unity did not last long. They will attack the vice-president and try to tie her to the immigration issue. In his first social media response, Trump said Vice-President Harris is more liberal and more incompetent than President Biden. The Republicans would have preferred Biden to stay in the race.