On April 28 Canadians will head to polls to elect a new federal government. The election comes following the resignation of former prime minister Justin Trudeau and the nomination of Mark Carney as the new Liberal leader, all while Canada deals with the threat of a trade war with the United States.
The nomination of Carney resulted in the unusual situation of Canada having a prime minister who is not an elected member of Parliament.
Political science professor and chair Laura Stephenson answers questions about how Canadian elections work, why we are having one now and what the likely issues will be.
Western News: Why are we having an election now?
Laura Stephenson: We’re having an election now because according to the regular election schedule, we must have one sometime before October 20. The second reason is because our new prime minister doesn’t have a seat in the House of Commons. Carney can be prime minister, but it doesn’t make for as easy governing as it would be if he had a seat. What would normally happen is such a prime minister would seek a seat through a byelection. In this case, because we must have an election anyways, it makes sense to call one now.
Another reason is the threat we are now facing with Donald Trump. Having a prime minister with a clear mandate will allow them to negotiate with Trump from a position of strength. Lastly, according to recent polls, the Liberal party’s fortunes have drastically changed in the last little while, and now is a far better time for them to go to the polls than a couple of months ago. Given the future is uncertain, it seems as good a time as any.
What are the issues in this election?
LS: Heading into December the big issues were inflation and cost of living. Health care is a perennial issue of concern for people, and housing was also on a lot of people’s minds.
Now, what has changed is that Canada-U.S. relations are top of mind, and this is taking away some of the imperative people were feeling around the housing crisis. While cost of living remains important for people who are struggling, U.S.-relations adds a new consideration because of its direct implications on affordability.
What is the first-past-the-post electoral system?
LS: It’s actually a really confusing name, because it implies there is some kind of preconceived line you pass to win a seat in the House of Commons. And that’s not really how it works. Instead, what it means is any individual who wins the most votes than any other individual in a riding or electoral district is declared the winner.
Do Canadians elect a prime minister?
LS: We do not.
What happens in our parliamentary system is we elect individual members of parliament in each riding. Whichever party has the most members of parliament is asked to form the government. The prime minister then is chosen from among them. Typically, this is the leader of the party, and they should have also won a seat in the House of Commons. I say “should,” because, as our current situation is telling us, it is perfectly fine for a prime minister to be the leader of the party, but not a member of parliament.
Does the popular vote matter?
LS: Not in the way you would think.
We often think about the popular vote in the U.S. system because everyone directly elects a president, and so you can look at the support a candidate is getting and see how that translates into their support in the Electoral College.
In Canada, the popular vote is far less important, because every electoral district is its own competition. Even if a party commands a lot of the popular vote across the country, if they don’t win individual ridings, they are maybe not going to be the winner of the election in terms of being able to form government.
Is electoral reform still relevant?
LS: I think electoral reform will always be relevant, so long as we have a situation where the popular vote doesn’t typically translate into much when it comes to individual ridings and the outcome of an election. However, electoral reform is a very tricky topic. It is very hard to enact, because one of the things that must be realized is the party that gets into power under one electoral system is highly unlikely to want a different electoral system that might disadvantage it at the next election. The people who advocate for electoral reform are typically the ones who did not win, whether it be the voters who supported non-winning parties or the MPs from those other parties.
Expert explainers reflect the perspective and scholarly interest of Western faculty members and are not an articulation of official university policy on issues being addressed.
