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As severe weather becomes more frequent and costly, Western University has recruited a global leader in risk, resilience and disaster analytics to help build the next generation of tools that measure the impacts of storms, wildfires and other natural hazards. Seth Guikema, an internationally recognized civil and environmental engineer, is joining Western as the Eddie Goldenberg Research Chair of Canada in Climate Risk and Resilience Analytics, receiving $8 million in federal funding. Guikema, who held previous appointments at Texas A&M University and Johns Hopkins University, comes to Western Engineering from the University of Michigan. “Western is home to an extraordinary group of researchers focused on helping the world prepare for and respond to devastating natural events. We think of it as future-proofing our planet. As our first Eddie Goldenberg Research Chair, Seth Guikema brings global expertise and new approaches to better manage risk and help protect the most vulnerable,” said Western President Alan Shepard. “Western is thrilled to support his work, which will have an impact on communities around the world.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqc9jIGnnF0 The new research chairs program is designed to recruit world-leading experts, whose work addresses critical national and global challenges, to Canadian post-secondary institutions. The initiative emphasizes both research excellence and tangible impact in Canada’s strategic priority areas, including advanced digital technologies, climate resilience and the Arctic, defence and dual-use applications and community resilience. “The Eddie Goldenberg Research Chairs of Canada represent a significant investment in university research and innovation, which help drive Canada’s economic growth,” said Shepard. “We’re grateful for the federal government’s support to recruit leading scientists like Seth Guikema to advance solutions for Canada and the world.” Guikema’s arrival strengthens Western’s growing international leadership in natural hazards research, adding a new dimension to the work already underway through the Canadian Severe Storms Laboratory (CSSL) and its research programs focused on tornadoes, hail, severe weather observation and climate resilience. He develops data-driven solutions and practical tools to help communities prepare and respond to severe weather. “The hope is always to provide actionable information to decision makers – from the federal government to individual households – about the potential impacts of severe storms,” said Guikema. “That knowledge can help drive better decisions about reducing risk from the hazards faced today, while also preparing for changes in future hazard risk induced by climate change.”

Western’s severe weather expertise

Western was an ideal setting for Guikema to advance his research, which connects engineering, risk analysis, artificial intelligence (AI), data science and community resilience. “I knew Western would be the perfect place due to the incredible expertise in the Faculty of Engineering and the Canadian Severe Storms Lab that complements what I do,” said Guikema, who previously served as president of the Society for Risk Analysis. With a focus on social inequity and strengths in severe weather, engineering, meteorology and natural hazards research, Western provides an environment where Guikema can collaborate with researchers across disciplines. “There aren’t many places in the world that have Western’s depth and breadth of expertise in severe weather research,” said Guikema. “I can’t wait to join the excellent team of engineers and scientists who have spent years building some of the world’s most detailed observations of severe weather. Together, the goal is to move beyond understanding hazards to helping communities prepare for what comes next.”

Helping communities better adapt to hazards

Guikema’s focus on impact, and preparing for it, distinguishes his work. A typical project could involve working with a utility company to develop models that predict how severe weather may affect the electrical grid. Using historical data, weather information and machine learning, Guikema and his team can estimate where outages are likely to occur, how extensive they might be and what resources may be needed to restore power. Other projects focus on community resilience, using data and modelling to understand how changing hazards may affect access to critical resources and help communities and governments make better decisions about adaptation. The goal is to strengthen human expertise by providing better information sooner. “Humans still have to make these decisions, but AI can provide them with more detailed information, faster,” said Guikema. That philosophy guides his approach to AI. The most effective decisions combine AI-driven insights with human judgment, experience and an understanding of local communities, Guikema said. “It’s about more than AI being ‘right’. No AI system is always right,” said Guikema. “Humans bring deep expertise, and communities bring valuable lived experience. The goal of trustworthy AI is to help communities better understand and adapt to the hazards they face by providing useful information that complements human knowledge and respects local experience.”  

Building safer communities

For Guikema, resilience is not only about infrastructure. It’s also about people. Two communities can experience the same storm and recover very differently. One neighbourhood may regain power quickly and return to normal. Another may face longer disruptions because of reduced access to transportation, health care, childcare, food and other essential services. Understanding those differences requires looking beyond engineering. “My approach is to work closely with social scientists, urban planners and policy experts, particularly those studying inequalities, well-being and population health. The goal is to find common understanding and build solutions to complex societal problems,” said Guikema. That interdisciplinary lens aligns closely with the research environment at Western, where scientists and engineers are examining severe weather across multiple perspectives – from observing storms in the field to understanding their impacts on society. “We are thrilled to be welcoming Seth to our faculty. His research is transforming the ways in which we understand and manage risk and resilience, and offers real-world solutions that strengthen communities, improve critical infrastructure and benefit millions of people,” said Western Engineering dean Ken Coley. “Seth’s appointment is particularly exciting because of the way it dovetails with Western’s world-class research in severe storms to drive even greater impact on society.” Through CSSL, Western Engineering researchers have built one of the most detailed pictures of severe weather in Canada. The Northern Tornadoes Project, Northern Hail Project and Northern Mesonet Project are collecting critical observations across a vast and changing landscape. “One of the biggest limitations facing severe storm science is the lack of detailed historical data. We have observations covering large areas, but relatively little information about how storms behave at the local scale where people live, work and build,” said Guikema. “Western’s leadership in collecting high-quality field observations through its severe storm research programs creates an extraordinary foundation for applying risk analysis, simulation, AI and other methods to improve our understanding of storm risk and community resilience.” That combination – detailed observations of hazards and advanced models of their impacts – creates new opportunities to better understand risk and build resilience. Using these integrated tactics is becoming increasingly important as climate change affects how communities experience hazards. Many engineering standards and risk calculations have historically relied on the assumption that past conditions provide a reliable guide for the future. But that assumption is becoming more complicated. “The historical data isn’t fully representative of the future,” said Guikema. “Any time we’re dealing with a severe weather event, we have to think about climate change. Otherwise, we’re likely to underestimate the risk.” Guikema said resilience-based strategies must begin long before disaster strikes. Proper risk analysis, fortified by public investment, helps communities withstand and recover from future events. “We should leverage disruptions to try to increase the resilience of the system, rather than rebuild what we had before,” said Guikema.  

Eddie Goldenberg Research Chairs of Canada

The Eddie Goldenberg Research Chairs of Canada provide up to $1 billion over 12 years to support Canadian post-secondary institutions in recruiting exceptional international researchers and expatriate Canadian researchers leading transformational research projects. These chairs will help ensure that the next generation of researchers, innovators and leaders have the opportunity to build their futures in Canada and contribute to discoveries that will benefit people across the country and around the world. Learn more about how Western is turning curiosity into solutions.