Expert Commentary

On Nov. 3, American voters will decide who controls the House of Representatives and the Senate in a swath of midterm elections. Political science professor Matthew Lebo, an expert in American politics, spoke to Western News to explain what’s being decided in the midterm elections and why they are so important.  

Western News: What sets these midterm elections apart from previous ones?

Matthew Lebo (ML): In the history of polling in the United States there has never been a midterm election with a president as unpopular as Donald Trump is now. This could mean a huge swing toward the Democrats and a very different second half to Trump’s second term in office. The closest comparator would be the 2006 midterm elections during George W. Bush’s second term. The Iraq War was going badly, the economy was not great, the federal government was heavily criticized for its response to Hurricane Katrina. So, you saw a big swing toward the Democrats – they took over the House, they took over the Senate and that was all a prelude to a decisive Democratic win in the 2008 presidential election. The experience in 2006 tells us what can happen with an unpopular president, and Trump is even less popular now than Bush was then. Polls suggest Republican senators will lose in Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska, maybe even Kansas and Nebraska – these are very Republican states. We can be a little skeptical about polls, I’m not buying them 100 per cent, but the numbers now are staggeringly bad for Republicans.  

You mention the House and the Senate. What are these bodies?

ML: Congress is the legislative branch of the federal government. It has two chambers – the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Senate, as a body, is as powerful as the House of Representatives, unlike in Canada where the Senate is not as powerful as the House of Commons. The U.S. Congress is the branch that makes legislation and sits parallel to the executive branch (the president, vice president and cabinet). The branches are supposed to check each other’s powers. The House and the Senate have some different areas of responsibility, but both must agree for a bill to pass.  

Why is the party composition of Congress so important?

ML: The party that holds the majority in either body sets the agenda. Bills can only be considered when the majority party allows it. All the committees are chaired by a member of the majority party. Appointments to the Cabinet and Supreme Court must be confirmed by a majority of members in the Senate. When the president is of a different party than either or both majorities in Congress, then government becomes more confrontational. Especially with Donald Trump, if there are Democratic majorities in the House and in the Senate, then it will likely become more than confrontational. Government would come to a standstill in many respects. There wouldn’t be any legislation that’s passed – for a bill to become law it must be passed by the House and the Senate and then signed by the president. If the president doesn’t sign it, it only becomes law if two-thirds of the House and Senate pass it. There probably wouldn’t be confirmations of executive appointments like to the Cabinet or the courts and there would likely be open investigations of Donald Trump and his people conducted by Congress.  

How is this different from the way Canada’s government is set up?

ML: In Canada, we have a British-style system, also called a Westminster or parliamentary system. The prime minister is a member of the majority party in the House of Commons and so, when the majority in the House of Commons puts a bill forward, it only does so knowing the majority party, including the prime minister, supports it. You can’t have divided government in Canada. You can have a minority government, but it is not possible for the largest party in the House of Commons to be different than the prime minister’s party. In the U.S. however, the majority party in the House and Senate can be different than the president’s own party.  

Why are there elections in the middle of a presidential term?

ML: When the Constitution was written, four years was considered an appropriate length of time for a president to be elected, but the Framers of the Constitution wanted members of the House to be more responsive to the people, with faster turnover of representatives. So, those 435 seats in the House of Representatives are elected every two years. Senators were not originally elected, they were appointed by state legislatures. It was only about 110 years ago that senators became elected. One-third are replaced every two years, so those elections are staggered. The Senate has 100 members (two per state) and this year, there are 35 elections to the Senate.  

What will the 2026 US midterms decide?

ML: Most importantly, they’ll decide who holds the majority in the House and the Senate. For the last two years, there’s been a Republican House majority and a Republican Senate majority and so when President Donald Trump has made unconstitutional decisions, he has not had Congress pushing back on him. If Democrats win majorities in both the House and the Senate, there will be much more oversight of the president. There will likely be hearings and subpoenas. Attempts to remove President Trump through the impeachment process seem likely as well. Tariff policy is up to Congress, not the president. The Supreme Court has told Trump his Liberation Day tariffs were unconstitutional, but Trump implemented them anyway, because he knows Congress isn’t going to push back and it will take the Supreme Court a year to get around to the case. Democrats in the House and Senate could assert their authority to try ending tariffs much more quickly – they may even be able to get some Republicans on board as well.