On Nov. 5, Americans will head to the polls to cast their vote for president of the United States. How a candidate wins the election is more complicated than just votes. It actually comes down to an often misunderstood body called the Electoral College.
But what is the Electoral College and what role does it play in choosing the next president of the United States?
Political science professor Matthew Lebo, an expert in American domestic politics with an emphasis on the presidency, Congress and elections, helps to explain how the Electoral College works and what to watch for on election night.
Western News: What is the Electoral College?
Matt Lebo: The Electoral College is how the presidency is decided. There are 538 votes in the Electoral College and each state has a certain number of votes based on how many seats they have in the House of Representatives, plus their two senators. Therefore, larger states have more Electoral College votes.
Whichever candidate wins the popular vote in a state gets all that state’s electoral college votes. Maine and Nebraska are a little bit different because they allocate votes by congressional district. Whichever presidential candidate gets at least 270 Electoral College votes will be the winner of the Electoral College and the presidency.
Why does the U.S. use the Electoral College?
ML: It’s incredibly arcane. It was set up by those who framed the constitution. It was intended to give a little bit more representation to smaller states when choosing the president. Theoretically it’s set up so that the electors could decide the people made a bad choice, and then they would choose somebody else. That’s never happened and it’s difficult to imagine it ever would.
I believe it is an outdated system for choosing a leader. There’s no other office in the world where you’re choosing one person for one job, and the person who gets the most votes doesn’t necessarily win.
What are swing states and why are they crucial?
ML: There are 43 states plus the District of Columbia where we’re sure we know who’s going to win. Then there are seven states that are extremely close in the polling and were extremely close in the 2020 election.
Those seven states are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. The election will come down to who can win those states. There are a few different scenarios that could mean a victory for either candidate.
If Kamala Harris can win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – which are states that Joe Biden won – then she could lose the rest of them and still become president. She’s ahead now in Wisconsin and Michigan, so Pennsylvania is really a key state.
How does a candidate win the election without winning the popular vote?
ML: There are some states where a presidential candidate will win overwhelmingly.
For example, in California, Harris might win by 10 million votes, but she only needs to win by one vote to get all the Electoral College votes. A candidate can pile up the votes in states where they win, but only get so many Electoral College votes.
That’s the 2016 story. Hillary Clinton won by wide margins in places like California, New York, New Jersey and Illinois. Donald Trump won in states by smaller margins but eked out enough wins in key battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Who are the electors on the Electoral College?
ML: In every state the two political parties will come up with a slate of electors. The Democratic Party has one list of names, and the Republican Party has a different list of names. Those people get on the list by being loyal to the party. Perhaps they’re activists within the party or have positions within the party organizations. When a state’s popular vote is decided, the slate belonging to the winning candidate’s party casts its votes.
Can we expect a quick result on Nov. 5?
ML: It is possible there will be a quick result if Pennsylvania is counted and Harris has a lead. If Harris is already doing well in rural Pennsylvania early in the evening, it’s a sign that she’s in very good shape. North Carolina is also counted early and if it goes to Harris, then that’s hugely important, but probably it’ll be a day or two days at least until we really know who won every state.
