Western professor Laura Stephenson, chair of the political science department, has seen voter attitudes towards climate change shift in recent years, despite most Canadians agreeing that climate change is happening.
The political adage, “It’s the economy, stupid,” is proving accurate. As citizens experience financial strain, there is less emphasis on what Stephenson calls “luxury goods” – which seems to include environmental concerns.
“If you have basic things covered, then you have the capacity to actually worry about the environment,” said Stephenson. “Think of it like wanting to save for retirement while you’re struggling to pay for rent. Essentially, dealing with climate change is like investing in the future, but if you can’t make ends meet today, how many people are going to be willing to do that?”
Professor Laura Stephenson
Stephenson said it’s a natural instinct for humans to act this way. It’s incredibly difficult to convince people to sacrifice now so their grandchildren can benefit, especially if people already feel as if they are struggling.
It’s a reality Ivey Business School professor Brandon Schaufele is also witnessing in his energy policy work.
“I think there’s been a perception over the last 10 years that we could have our cake and eat it too. While we can improve both environmental outcomes and the economy over the long run, in the short-run energy affordability is really important to Canadians,” he said.
Schaufele is director of the Ivey Energy Policy and Management Centre, which focuses on three main areas of study: energy transmission, regulation and hydrocarbons and the environment. He has spent years working on policies to help Canada reduce its emissions with minimal impact – or even benefit – to the economy.
He believes with innovation and technological change, we can drive better environmental and economic outcomes.
“A clear example of this is air pollution, which is far less of a problem now than it was 50 years ago,” he said.
What remains a consistent roadblock is political will and public opinion.
By the numbers: What Canadians think
Stephenson is co-director of the Consortium on Electoral Democracy (C-Dem.ca), which has been gathering data on voter attitudes towards climate change over the last five years in annual Democracy Checkup surveys.
Canadians’ assertions that climate change is real hasn’t shifted much over that period. Data from Democracy Checkup surveys shows nearly 90 per cent of Canadians polled say climate change is happening, a number that has remained relatively unchanged over the last five years.
Source: Consortium on Electoral Democracy
What has shifted? The main cause of climate change, as reported by those polled, as well as the importance of the environment compared to the economy.
“In 2020, we had about 57 per cent of people indicating they thought climate change was caused by human activity. In our most recent sample, that number has dropped to 49 per cent,” said Stephenson.
At the same time, the data also shows the portion of the population that believes climate change is both natural and human-caused has increased over the last five years.
Source: Consortium on Electoral Democracy
Perhaps most striking is the shift in attitude to prioritize jobs and the economy over climate concerns.
Survey respondents were asked to agree or disagree with the following statement: “When there is a conflict between protecting the environment and creating jobs, jobs should come first.”
Since the pandemic, Canadians’ responses have shifted significantly.
In 2020, there was a 50/50 split between those who agreed with the statement and those who disagreed, whereas the most recent data shows 60 per cent now agree jobs should come first.
Source: Consortium on Electoral Democracy
Stephenson said people largely see environmental concerns as a trade-off to economic concerns, which may help explain the trend, even if that might not be true.
The path forward
Even as most governments around the world agree action is needed the path forward may not be clear in the current political climate.
It’s the global nature of the issue that makes it so difficult to combat.
“The global aspect of the problem means that actions taken in Canada have to be considered vis-à-vis actions and outcomes in the rest of world,” said Schaufele.
Professor Brandon Schaufele
He points to Canada’s oil and gas sector as an example. According to Schaufele, while the sector is a leading cause of emissions in this country, it’s still cleaner than oil and gas sectors in other parts of the world.
If Canada were to completely shut down oil and gas production, beyond the obvious economic impact, there may be little benefit in terms of global emissions because Schaufele predicts another, less clean producer in another country would be likely to fill the gap. He suggests Canada would not only suffer economic pain, but may even produce more emissions during such a transition.
But there are options.
Given how air pollution was tackled, Schaufele says similar technological advancements will be critical for combating global climate change.
“Currently, we’re working towards those technologies, and they’ve come a long way in the last 10 years – but given the characteristics of the fuels we use and their alternatives, it will be difficult to just eliminate fossil fuels as quickly as many hoped,” said Schaufele.
With the polarization and unpopularity of consumer-facing carbon pricing, he suggests governments will have to get more creative with how they price out carbon. Regulatory tools, which are hidden from consumers but still increase the costs of emissions, may become a reality if Canada moves away from its carbon tax policies.
“There are so many reasons to believe we can do climate and energy policy well,” said Schaufele. “But what we’ve learned is we have to be cognizant of the retail politics that may have been misjudged.”
Read more from Our Warming Planet, a series featuring Western University researchers and scholars addressing the great challenge of our time.
