Faculty of Social Science

In recent months, Ukrainian forces have launched drone strikes deeper into Russia and Crimea. These strikes, dubbed “long-range sanctions” by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have predominantly hit notable military targets – oil refineries, communications hubs and industries directly funding the Russian war effort. The drone strikes aren’t the first Ukrainian attacks into Russian territory, but they now appear to be eroding support for the war among the Russian population. That said, it would be premature to argue that either Vladimir Putin’s regime or the Russia-Ukraine war will end any time soon.  

The impact of Ukraine’s strikes

One of the most notable results of Ukrainian drone strikes has been the rapid rise of fuel prices and extensive fuel shortages in Russia. There have been reports of taxis being forced to ration fuel, lineups at gas stations that are hours long and Russia being forced to import fuel. Public opinion polls in Russia in recent weeks suggest cracks may be showing in broad Russian support for the war and for Putin. Ukrainian strikes are bringing the war home to major cities, deeply affecting Russians both personally and economically – so much so that some are apparently willing to share their frustrations with pollsters. Much has been written about how Russians see the war. But beyond the odd instance, the war had rarely featured sustained attacks on Russian territory. Additionally, Ukrainian drone strikes have impacted Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, by leading to fuel and groceries shortages, impacting daily life. Historians of Nazi Germany will recall that as Allied troops marched into Germany, the cult of Hitler fractured and many Germans finally stopped supporting, actively or passively, the Nazi regime. The same fate may meet Putin’s regime, but it seems unlikely.  

The Russian response

The response from Russian leaders suggests the war is far from over. Putin has just signed a new law expanding the Russian military even further. Sergei Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesperson, has once again said that Russia’s long-term demands must be met by Ukraine as a precondition for the war ending. These demands include Ukraine ceding control of Russian-occupied territory, including the Donbas region. Domestically, Putin continues to highlight the importance of the “special military operation” and has attempted to downplay Russian fuel shortages while maintaining his claims that Ukraine needs to be punished. Russia has also continued its extensive missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets, framing them as retaliation for Ukrainian drone strikes. Ukraine has claimed its own strikes are in retaliation for Russian attacks on civilians, which have in fact been common throughout the war. They’ve been intensifying since the start of 2025, and without any claims of retaliation against Ukraine for attacks on Russian targets. Such retaliation claims should be seen for what they are – fodder for domestic audiences, hoping to frame Russian attacks as vengeance, a familiar refrain in the Russian propaganda toolbox. Putin has even claimed that any civilian casualties from Ukrainian strikes affirm Ukraine’s “neo-Nazism.” This framing plays into Russian claims of Ukrainians committing genocide in the Donbas, which served as one justification for its invasion. No such genocide has occurred. It’s clear that Russian leaders hope to reframe the attacks in a way to lead to Russians to rally around the flag. Whether that will be successful is, however, a completely different issue.  

Putin’s position

Putin’s control of Russia appears stable. While there have been signs of discontent – threats of mutiny and Russian oligarchs moving money outside of Russia in case of economic collapse – little seems to have changed politically. Even Putin’s approval ratings, although lower than they have been, still show favourable support. Even if Russian public opinion polls are suspicious because citizens being surveyed may respond positively due to fear of the regime, that in itself would suggest Putin’s power remains secure. Western speculation about a possible collapse of Putin’s regime are likely wishful thinking. But what does matter is the impact of Ukrainian strikes on morale. For Russia, continued Ukrainian strikes will only make the war a common facet of everyday Russian life. To Russians in Crimea, it has shattered the illusion of safety and Russian control. These attacks will clearly have an economic impact. For Ukraine, the success of the drone strikes has renewed hopes among many Ukrainians that victory is possible, even if still far off, and that occupied territories, like Crimea, could be liberated. Ukrainian success undoubtedly played some role in the recent protests over ousted Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.  

Shifting U.S. loyalties

Internationally, the drone strikes had an impact on U.S. President Donald Trump, who appeared to agree to provide Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles. While not the commitment Ukraine wanted, Trump has shown he tends to like supporting whoever he perceives are winners. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefly met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the recent Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting. Rubio downplayed expectations resulting from the meeting, while Russian responses to the meeting were pessimistic. Zelenskyy met with Trump while the Ukrainian leader attended Sen. Lindsay Graham’s funeral. A shift in U.S. attitudes towards Ukraine may not have immediate effects, but it could build momentum that helps the Ukrainian war effort over the long term. Peace, however, remains unlikely due to Russia’s unwillingness to seriously engage in talks that don’t prioritize its demands. Longer-term impacts, both on Russia and on the broader war, will become clearer as time passes, but there’s little likelihood that a Russian collapse is looming. Putin’s regime remains fully committed to the war, while vital American support hinges on Trump’s shifting loyalties. But Ukraine continues to demonstrate its resolve and military capability, with its expanding drone strikes serving as a crucial booster for Ukrainian morale – and a potential blow to Russia’s. Oleksa Drachewych, Assistant Professor in History, Western University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Expert Insight reflects the perspective and scholarly interest of Western faculty members and is not an articulation of official university policy on issues being addressed.