At the opening of COP30 in Brazil, United Nations secretary-general António Guterres did not mince words, saying the failure to limit global warming to 1.5 C is a “moral failure and deadly negligence.” Is it time to rethink a global strategy after 30 years of climate conferences aimed at tackling the challenges of climate change?
Gordon McBean is professor emeritus of geography and has decades of experience researching climate science. He spoke with Western News about the effectiveness of COP summits and what progress he hopes to see emerge in Brazil from this year’s conference.
What are COPs and why are they important?
Gordon McBean (GM): Conference of the Parties (COP) brings together all countries willing to talk about how to best take actions to reduce climate change its impacts. Usually, the conference concludes with a set of agreements or commitments, the most famous being the Paris Agreement, which was adopted at COP21. This year’s summit in Brazil will be the 30th such conference.
These climate convention meetings are very important because they bring people together from governments and their advisory agencies along with activist groups. The goal is to encourage more effective government action, because so far we are not reducing our greenhouse gas emissions.
Gordon McBean
This year marks 10 years since the Paris Agreement. Are we delivering on its promises?
GM: I’m concerned we are not. The centerpiece of that agreement was to keep the global average temperature from rising another 2 C, and if possible, keep it below 1.5 C.
The reality is we’ve already seen average global temperatures rise by more than 1.5 C just in the last couple of years. The year 2023 was the warmest on record and 2024 was even warmer. I’m assuming we will see this trend continue.
Considering current geopolitical tensions, is global cooperation still a realistic goal?
GM: I try to be optimistic, but when we have governments for whom climate change is not a priority, or at worst is denied, it becomes increasingly difficult to stay positive.
Even if we reduce our emissions to zero, we are still going to be warming for at least another five decades because it takes years for the climate to stabilize.
The climate system is not in equilibrium because of the role oceans play in delaying warming. So, the impacts of climate change, like extreme weather events, will continue regardless, and we will need to spend a lot of effort collectively to reduce those impacts.
What do you hope to see as a result of COP30?
GM: I think actions on greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation strategies needed are critical, especially as it relates to the fossil fuel sector, where a large portion of emissions are generated.
I also want to see discussions about supporting countries, both with the scientific information but also with expertise, related to adaptation strategies to reduce the effects of a warming climate and extreme weather events.
We also need a plan on how we can reduce the effects of the increasing number of extreme weather events, to reduce the impacts on society and lower the number of people who are unfortunately killed or greatly stressed as a result.
I should add there are also impacts on ecosystems and food production. We need to eat, so we must implement the right actions to ensure the climate doesn’t become so hot and vulnerable that we wipe out food production.
Why is action so critical now?
GM: There is amazing work being done around the world therefore, it’s very important for scientists in the climate change field to work together to learn how others are taking action to reduce vulnerability, exposure and effects in their own countries.
The actions we take today, positive or negative, are impacting all our children and grandchildren. Climate warming is going to continue for decades, even if we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. We will still have to adapt to the realities of a warming climate. We will continue to see more extreme weather events, and unfortunately, the countries with the least support, are the ones that are going to be most impacted. We owe it to them.
